How is the population of Gloucestershire going to change over next 25 years?

In the next 20 years we are expecting the population of Gloucestershire to grow. Within this, we are expecting a disproportionately large amount of that growth to be seen in the older adult’s cohort (38%). Within this cohort we are expecting to see the largest increase in those aged 85+ (84%). This is driven by recent increases in life expectancy, in conjunction with the post-WWII baby boom, and post war migration.

Figure 1: Gloucestershire’s Demographic Change by Age Group between 2023 and 2043 highlighting change in Older Adults    ONS Subnational population projections 2018 based (principal projection)

 

ONS Subnational population projections 2018 based (principal projection)

The overall population of older people will be increasing every year for the next 20 years, however different cohorts within that see very different growth profiles:

• The number of older people aged 65–74 will increase up to 2037 before beginning to decrease again
• The number of older people aged 74-85 will see an increase in number every year, however the most extreme period of that growth will be between 2033 - 2043
• The number of older people aged over 85 will see the most extreme period of growth between today - 2033

Figure 2: Gloucestershire’s Demographic Change by Age Group between 2023 and 2043 highlighting change in Working Age Adults

ONS Sub-national population projections 2018-based principal projection

During the same period, Gloucestershire is expected to see minimal change in the number of adults of working age. A stark but relatively consistent drop in birth-rate since 1969 means that this cohort had generally stopped growing naturally and increases are driven by migration into Gloucester, either from abroad or domestically.

Table 1: Gloucestershire’s predicted demographic change by age group and district 2023 – 2043. 

ONS Sub-national population projections 2018-based principal projection