How will this change the demand for ASC services?

As people age past the age of 65 the chance that they will be in receipt of formal services, brokered by the council, increases exponentially:

• At 75 an older adult has a 1.8% chance of being in care
• By 85 this has increased by nearly four times to 8.1%

The older an adult is, the more likely they are to need more intense and bed-based care. This fact forms a key part of our understanding of, and ability to predict demand.

Figure 3: Graph showing the percentage of people receiving council funded care by age with a focus on older people

ContrOCC Commitments Report 2019-2023
ONS Sub-national population projections 2018-based principal projection

For much of adult life (18-50) there is a relatively consistent likelihood of needing care, however in later middle age (50-65), the likelihood increases. This is likely to be driven by a combination of factors, such as carer breakdown, and natural deterioration of a person’s independence but is not as dramatic as the increase in likelihood seen from adults aged over 75.

Figure 4: Graph showing the percentage of people receiving council funded care by age with a focus on adults of working age

ContrOCC Commitments Report 2019-2023
ONS Sub-national population projections 2018-based principal projection

Demand for services does not just come from those who have services brokered by us. There is also a significant private market for older adults care in Gloucestershire and placements made into Gloucestershire by other local authorities for adults of working age. Overall, we purchase 6% of all care – including 52% of care for older people and 63% of care for adults of working age.

Figure 5: Graph showing the funding distribution of care across Gloucestershire by older adults and adults of working age

ConctrOCC Commitments Report
Capacity Tracker – Estate Report

For the purpose of this MPS older adults and adults of working age have been considered slightly differently. Any older people receiving care which is not purchased by the county council is assumed to be privately funded. Any care for adults of working age, not purchased by the county council, is assumed to be purchased by another local authority.

Figure 6: Estimated total numbers of older people receiving care (GCC-funded and privately funded) 2019-2043

ContrOCC Commitments Report 2019-2023
ONS Sub-national population projections 2018-based principal projection

Given the large increase Gloucestershire is expecting to see in the cohort of those people aged 85+, and the propensity of that group of people to be in care, it is expected that the older people cohort will see a massive increase in demand over the next 20 years.

Figure 6: Estimated total numbers of adults of working age receiving care (GCC-funded and privately funded) 2023-2043

ContrOCC Commitments Report 2019-2023
ONS Sub-national population projections 2018-based principal projection

Unlike the drastic growth in older adults’ demand for formal care, demand from working age population is expected to grow much more slowly.